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simon collis

musings of an omnivorous biped

There’s been an awful lot of rumours about Intel and takeovers recently. One, that Intel is about to buy (or merge) with AMD. Another, that Apple might be about to buy Intel. Well, there aren’t that many companies that have the financial clout to buy Intel, but there are a few that might want to buy them. Here’s what I think.

  • Apple
    A takeover of Intel by Apple would make perfect sense for Apple, if not Intel. In fact, I’d say it ought to be right at the top of Tim Cook’s “To Do” list.Apple have recently started designing their own ARM chips for iPads and iPhones. It would make sense to buy Intel, decommission some of the products and turn their fabs over to making their own chips – which they’ve been designing themselves for a few years now. It means not having to deal with pesky outside suppliers like Samsung, with whom they have a bit of a history.

    It would prove disruptive in the external market too – they could easily drop the mobile chips for external suppliers, which although it would pass the market over to AMD for Windows laptops, and effectively kill the Surface Pro, it would have a strategically far more important result – ending Intel’s push for Android. And more traction for Android is something Apple can’t really allow to happen.

  • Oracle
    Oracle earn bucketloads of cash, and already own the SPARC architecture through Sun – a hardware business they’ve been growing. Owning Intel would give them a way into the x86 server market, either with Solaris on x86 or their own version of Linux. It would also essentially give Oracle a very hefty slice of the “Windows tax”, as they would now be providing the chips for probably 80% of the Windows market. It would give them access directly to Intel’s design department, with the inevitable consequence that Intel could produce a line of processors “optimised for Java”.If Oracle really wanted to play hardball, of course, it wouldn’t then be out of the way to suggest to Microsoft that if they want that ready supply of Intel chips to continue, they might want to consider discontinuing that pesky “SQL Server” product with immediate effect – whether that’s legal or not, I’ll let the lawyers fight over, but I can imagine it causing Larry Ellison to purr with delight; it is, after all, pretty much the same sort of squeeze Microsoft put on OS/2 back in the day.
  • Microsoft
    Legally speaking, this one would probably be the most difficult to achieve. I can imagine the DoJ would have something to say, and AMD would be right there, knocking on the door.Nevertheless, Intel’s recent announcement of upcoming Android notebooks must be alarming Redmond, and I can imagine that being pretty high up on Microsoft’s list of “things we really don’t want to happen”.
  • Google
    This one is quite the maverick on this list, but let’s think a moment.Google got into the hardware market by buying Motorola – mainly as a hedge to get Microsoft off Android’s back. That didn’t work. Owning Intel would pull the rug out from Microsoft, and essentially reverse the balance of power between the two companies, forever. Google would be able to dictate terms, and Microsoft could do little more than acquiesce meekly, knowing that Google essentially controlled enough patents, and enough of the market structure, to play enough hardball to strangle Microsoft’s businesses at any second. Certainly, the “Android tax” would stop overnight – it would have to, if Microsoft wanted to continue to work with the makers of Android – who would now be the largest supplier of the chips on which the vast majority of their software runs. Their only route out would be to push Windows entirely to an ARM-based infrastructure – something that’s not working very well right now.

As John-Louis Gassee pointed out, Intel are weak right now. They’re ripe to be taken over. For Apple or Google, Intel would represent the prize: control of the industry.

If Intel survives as a separate entity by the end of the year, I’ll be extremely surprised.

And once they’re gone, who’ll buy AMD?

These aren’t set in stone, but they are big red flags. If any service you want to sign up with does one of them, take a deep breath before continuing. If they do more than one, run away – fast. Take my advice – these are not lessons you want to learn the hard way

  1. They don’t validate your email
    If they don’t validate the original email, it suggests that you’ll never get a notification if someone tries to take over your account. Depending on how important the service is, that could be a major problem (you’d want to know if someone changed the email on your Internet banking, for example). However, these validations are the one exception to the following rule, where you don’t want them…
  2. Read more

…but were afraid you’d never find…

It’s quite unbelievable. In two years Jason Scott has turned the Interet Archive’s software collection into a monster! It’s amazing. Seriously, go look!

They even have a collection of stuff for my old Philips P2000. Bless.

As someone who develops with the Microsoft tool chain – particularly with .Net – the signs from Microsoft recently haven’t been overly encouraging recently. And that worries me – I’ve been developing using the Microsoft stack for 18 years and if they disappear, so does my career. But the writing’s looking to be on the wall:

  1. Some people at IBM think Windows 8 might be Microsoft’s OS/2. Ouch.
  2. Windows Phone is only 4.7% of the market, and while it’s growing, the top 2 players take 94.7% of the market – up from 92.4% last year
  3. In China, the world’s largest mobile phone market, the news is worse – Nokia sales are crashing, while Samsung is tops
  4. Another revenue stream dries up as Google stops licensing Exchange ActiveSync for its GMail product
  5. Facebook Home might be a clone of Windows Phone’s ‘people-centric’ UI, but it just brought Windows Phone’s consumer USP to their biggest rival. Ooops.
  6. Despite rumours since September and a petition on change.org, the Facebook (and therefore indirectly-part-Microsoft-owned) Instagram still isn’t available on Windows Phone
  7. As of January, Nokia were still selling twice as many Linux-based phones as Windows Phone ones
  8. Indy game developers prefer Sony to Microsoft these days, removing one of the Xbox’s key selling points.
  9. Microsoft have slashed Windows 8 OEM prices to try and revive the market, knocking 75% off the price of their biggest profit centre.
  10. Gartner predicts a fall of 7.6% in PC sales in 2013, while Apple Mac sales rose 31% overall last year, despite a weak start to 2013.
  11. Google are now a hardware player, and their Chromebook starts at about the full price of a retail Windows 8 licence
  12. You couldn’t make this up: Thieves broke into Microsoft. And just stole the iPads.
  13. Microsoft’s smartphone market share dropped after the launch of Windows Phone 8.
  14. The Surface tablets have sold about a third the number Microsoft ordered
  15. Actually the news for Internet Information Server isn’t all bad – it’s back to 20% market share, its highest since October 2010 – but still lower than every survey since 1996.
  16. Dell told the SEC that slow sales of Windows 8 and Windows 7 are a prime factor in its recent troubles that might lead to a takeover.
  17. The EU fined Microsoft $731 million for breaching their antitrust agreement over the browser choice screen – presumably one of the costliest oversights of all time.
  18. Apple’s App Store takes 74% of app store spend, while Google Play is 51% of all downloads. Even the BlackBerry store is over 100,000 apps now.
  19. SharePoint is being replaced by third party apps at multinationals on an almost daily basis
  20. 40% of PCs are still running Windows XP, despite this being three versions out of date (I wonder how many are still running Windows 2000?)
  21. Microsoft just sold their IPTV business, just as the consumer-savvy Apple might be going into the IPTV business.

This is depressing.

You know I could go on and on with these, and I haven’t really found any good news. As someone who relies on Microsoft for a living, this is really really depressing – and a bit scary.

Please, Microsoft, get your act together – I need some good news!

CalcStar

Posted by simon on 2013/04/03
Posted in Technology  | Tagged With: , , , , , | 1 Comment

Some time in 1993, I decided to start taking this “work” and “career” thing a little bit more seriously than I had been doing. I’d basically been trying for a few years to become a games programmer on the Commodore 64, and when that didn’t pan out – mainly due to interest in the platform drying up – I was left with a set of obsolete skills and no real CV to speak of.

Enter “temping”. Basic data entry, more money than I’d earned so far (although it’s not as much as I earn these days, thanks to inflation it still felt like a serious chunk of dough back then). Read more

Rocking chairs and rocking horses…

Posted by simon on 2013/03/26
Posted in Uncategorized  | 1 Comment

This is my watch:

My watch

I bought it just after I moved away from York most recently. Its 1970s styling attracted me – every time I looked at it, I felt like Robert Culp in an episode of Columbo, artfully timing things with millisecond precision on one half of a split screen while a jazz soundtrack played in the background. But I digress. It wasn’t an expensive watch, by any stretch of the imagination, but it was something I enjoyed having and wearing. Even when people questioned why I was wearing a watch – my standard answer being that it provides some protection from the random crims who ask the time to see what phone you’ve got in case they want to steal it – it never bothered me. It was always something I did because I liked it. No other reason.

I thought the battery had run out, so took it to a shop to replace it. Alas, it turned out there was nothing wrong with the battery – the mechanism itself had gone. I can replace it – but the price is nearly twice what I paid for the watch in the first place.

Then at work, my iPod random played this song:

I first heard this on the record “A Place In My Heart”. Never having heard any Nana Mouskouri, I saw this in a charity shop and seemed to remember she had been immensely popular and bought it for 50p. Of the songs, none of them were particularly interesting, except this one: “Attic Toys”.

My understanding of the song (and I can’t really make out the words that well – there’s a limit to what a 40 year old vinyl bought from a charity shop can reproduce when digitised and shoved into iTunes) is that it’s a moment in time when a woman goes into her attic, and finds the boxes of toys from her childhood.

All those smiling dolls, they had names once. Personalities. She invited them for tea parties, dressed them, cared for them. Nowadays they sit in rotting cardboard boxes, kept company only by the bugs and the spiders up here in the dust. Do they still have names? Who can remember?

Vanished hopes and disillusions
Peel away the memories like a knife

Like “Whiskey On A Sunday“, this song’s almost unbearable to me. It’ll make me cry nearly every time (I’m crying now and I’m only thinking about it).

I have a “watches graveyard”. Timepieces once worn and loved, batteries ran out, replaced by something “nicer” or “funkier” or “more up to date”.

No.

Not this time.

No more Attic Toys.

Tomorrow, I get it repaired.

Comment your code, people

Posted by simon on 2013/02/17
Posted in Technology  | Tagged With: , , | No Comments yet, please leave one

Ars Technica recently posted an article taken from Stack Exchange about comments in code. It’s a thorny subject with programmers. “Why should I comment my code – I know what it does?”.

Sure, you do. But what happens if I need to come and work on your code – in a hurry?

I’m speaking from experience here. Bitter experience. I’ve had to dive into code, in a hurry, to fix something, because a client is on the phone, screaming, and screaming loudly that this needs to be fixed. Today. Or There Will Be Consequences.

And the code was horrible. Layer upon layers of classes with cryptic but “self-descriptive” names. Sure, he was following the “Code Complete” method of working – “regard every comment as a personal failure”. “Clean Code” has the same thing.

Here’s a tip for you: take those two books, find the pages where it says this about comments, and cross it out. Because while both books are incredibly useful, they are completely and utterly wrong about comments. Their advice is harmful, dangerous, and leads to sloppy, unmaintainable code. It promotes a sheer lack of professionalism, and it’s dangerous. If either of the authors came to me for a job, I would turn them down, even if I were short staffed and they were the only candidate, for this reason, and this reason alone.

What I needed in that circumstance wasn’t “self-documenting code”, what I needed was signposts – I needed to be able to find my way to the trouble spots – fast. Even single-line comments giving a brief description of what the class did would have helped. I’ve worked on badly written projects that were more maintainable than ones that are paragons of excellent code entirely due to this issue. I’d take a well-commented, bug-ridden crawling horror over some comment-less mediocrity any day.

Comments are not a failure, nor should they be regarded as such. One answer they mention in Ars demonstrates exactly and precisely why comments – even bad ones – are essential, without even realising it. Take a look at this, from an answer by Paul:

They often lie. You cannot trust comments and must read the code instead. Which raises the question: why would you need the comments at all?

// this method returns the sum of 'a' and 'b'
public int GetHash(int a, int b)
{
//the calculation of the hash
int result = a*b;
}

(The hash is not the sum but the product.)

Sure, that’s a bad comment. But it documents what the programmer was expecting the code to do. If this is where the error is found, then it should raise alarm bells. Check your source code control logs (you do use Subversion, TFS, git, or something like that – right?). Is it simply a typographical error? Did it get changed for debugging and nobody changed it back? Did it get changed – even though it’s wrong – to get a badly written test to pass? I’d argue that the comment isn’t wrong here, not at all – it’s a clue as valuable as the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.

But let’s diverge for a moment – what if the comment were more illuminating?

// this method used to return the sum of 'a' and 'b'

or how about the even more useful:

// this method used to return the sum of 'a' and 'b'
// 1999.09.09 (SC) changed to be compliant with protocol v2

In reality, I don’t think anyone that doesn’t comment their code can, or should, ever be called a “professional” programmer. I’ve worked with many bright minds who develop over-complicated systems that have caused their colleagues problems when the inevitable happens, and they have to take over the maintenance of the project.

It’s not for nothing that Microsoft StyleCop bitches when you don’t comment what your code does. Much as I don’t particularly enjoy working with StyleCop’s rules, that’s one I’m totally in favour of.

In short folks, my attitude is simple: either learn to write effective comments, that signpost what the things you have written are supposed to do, or go find a job doing something else. Because until you can write effective comments that enable other people to modify your code, you’re not a professional who makes positive contributions at work – you’re a dangerous liability who is endangering your employer’s very existence.

Rant over.

A Festive mystery…

Posted by simon on 2013/01/15
Posted in Music  | Tagged With: , , , , , | 1 Comment

Oh dear, what a corny pun of a title.

OK… recently I’ve become interested in music on vinyl again. I won’t bore you with the details of this fascination, but I’ve been digging through my collection, digitising them, and adding details to Discogs as I go. (Plus, of course, frequenting second hand record shops, and rooting through the vinyl bins in charity shops in search of ancient gems… but I digress)

Finally, I hit new ground. Take a look at this label: Read more

Ars Technica makes a pretty good case that the sales of Windows 8 are pretty good so far. On a par with Windows 7, in fact – the Wall Street Journal estimated 40 million copies were sold in that first month for Windows 7 too. So everything looks peachy, right?

Not from where I’m sitting. Here’s the problem as far as I see it.

Windows 7 – like Vista – was launched with a special discount: everyone who’d bought a PC in the last 6 months got Vista at a serious reduction – the cost was £12.99 in my case, which is basically the cost of media and shipping and handling. The same discount applies to Windows 8, too.

The difference is that Windows 8 also has an “early bird” discount, too. When it came to Windows 7 or Vista, you paid a lot more without the “recent PC” deal, but there is for Windows 8 – right now I can upgrade for £24.99 (the price on the US site is $39.99).

It doesn’t take a maths wizard to work out that this is only a third of the income for Microsoft. But also it doesn’t take a genius to work out that this discount isn’t making any difference. The people that bought Windows 8 so far are much the same ones that bought Windows 7 last time around.

Of course, it’s too early to tell exactly what the implications of this are, but it represents a real opportunity. For Apple, for Android, and for desktop Linux. For someone like me, who’s spent an entire career developing with Microsoft products? Well, let’s just say I’m not sleeping as well as I used to…

Many of the press are reporting that the immediate departure of Steven Sinofsky, head of the Windows division, is a bad thing. Wall Street isn’t happy, they report. And yet, I can’t help thinking that this is a really good thing for Microsoft.

To be honest, the Surface has had modest sales. It’s not been the success many people were hoping for. The fairly pleasing early sales of Windows 8 might well be down to a huge discount (as low as $19.99, depending on when you buy it, or bought your PC) for downloadable upgrades. Many corporates, however, will be content to wait for Windows 9 – and many of those are still upgrading from XP, of course.

But this is a sea change – a complete change of focus to make Windows more relevant in the new touch tablet era. So why is the departure of the man who made it happen such a good thing?

If Windows 8 failed, the argument ran, the targets on the backs of both Steve Baller and Steven Sinofsky would be obvious to Wall Street. With Sinofsky gone, Ballmer now has the freedom to restructure. More importantly, he has someone to blame. Windows was one of Microsoft’s biggest cash cows – any blip in it can easily be attributed to its previous manager’s missteps, and corrected.

Of course, that’s a high risk strategy for Ballmer, but there are plenty of corporates who will sit on their hands and just pay the Select Agreement fees, thus fending off the end of the franchise for another dozen years yet. Windows doesn’t need to be relevant, except in the corporate world, if Microsoft don’t feel they want it to be. Other than the perpetually money-losing Xbox division, Microsoft’s not in consumer-land to a great extent (Zune? Bob? Encarta?) so it’s not such great shakes if Windows doesn’t enter the consumer market that much.

But the main issue, of course, is Ballmer’s beloved “developers, developers, developers“. With the confusion over .Net, the way that Windows Store is based around Windows RT, and that Windows 8 pretty much deprecates .Net, throwing away ten years of hard work building up the ecosystem around the very successful .Net / Visual Studio platform, many developers have been feeling that Microsoft just wants to make their life harder, not easier – as though MS doesn’t want a nice populated app store (the fact that they have two of them – one for Windows 8, one for Windows Phone – is a facepalm of catastrophic magnitude, but that’s an aside).

The truth is, in my view, the departure of Sinofsky is one of the best things that could have happened to Microsoft in years – before he did much more damage.